The Spanish government received multiple intelligence warnings over several days regarding the risk of a mass migrant crossing into the North African enclave of Ceuta, according to military and civilian intelligence sources. The alerts, which were issued in the hours leading up to the crisis, revealed that the government was aware of the potential for a significant border incident.

Intelligence services had initially warned that King Mohammed VI of Morocco might make a « gesture of magnanimity » at the border to coincide with Morocco’s Throne Day celebrations. These initial warnings were quickly followed by reports of migrants swimming across from Fnideq and buses transporting people from various parts of Morocco towards the border.

In the days preceding the main surge, nearly 1,000 people swam into Ceuta. Intelligence officials viewed this as a test by Moroccan authorities and passed that assessment on to the government. This assessment proved prescient when, between 60,000 and 75,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta over a short period, marking the largest migration crisis in the autonomous city’s history. According to Spain’s Interior Ministry, about 53,000 people had returned to Morocco in the days that followed.

Security Forces Overwhelmed

On the ground, the Civil Guard and National Police were unable to stop the influx of migrants at the Tarajal border crossing and focused primarily on assisting the injured. Sources on the ground criticized Madrid for not immediately deploying the army, despite military units in both Ceuta and Melilla being on standby.

« They could have been mobilized without prior meetings, simply following a political decision, » sources told The Objective.

Officers also reported that the Moroccan gendarmerie stood « with their arms folded » while migrants attempted the crossing. Civil Guard sources noted that this situation differed from the 2021 crisis, pointing to a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling that prohibits the immediate return of migrants who reach Spanish territory by swimming as a contributing factor.

Government Response and EU Divisions

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez described the mass entry as a « violation of Spain’s territorial integrity, » blaming the incident on people-smuggling networks exploiting the court ruling. He insisted that Moroccan authorities had cooperated from the outset.

Despite the advance warnings, the Ministry of the Interior did not order the deployment of reinforcements until late Thursday, when the army was called in alongside additional Civil Guard and National Police personnel.

The crisis has also exposed deep divisions within the European Union. On July 31, Italy decided to temporarily suspend the EU Schengen Agreement with Spain for one month, closing sea and air routes between the two countries over « possible insecurity. »

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the measure was necessary to safeguard national security. Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Sweden have all expressed support for Italy’s firm stance.

Aftermath

Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska stated on Saturday that almost all of the migrants have left Ceuta and businesses had reopened. Ceuta’s regional leader, Juan Jesús Vivas, confirmed that while around 60,000 migrants had entered, more than 48,000 had returned by the evening of July 31. At least 67 people were killed during the mass crossing. The Moroccan authorities have yet to issue an official statement regarding the incident.

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